So, right now, states cannot raise taxes and face paying out on entitlements. The majority are licensing more gambling. The levy is not counted as a tax and is politically acceptable. Except, there’s too much gambling already. No matter how many casinos or other sites you licence, there’s still the same number of gamblers. Hence, the reference to “blood from stone”. It’s going to be very difficult for states to get any real increase in revenue, particularly when you add in the effect of online gambling. With rising gas prices and family budgets still under pressure because of the recession, it’s cheaper and more convenient to stay home to gamble.

So, let’s pick a few states and see what plans are in the pipeline. Go to Boston and you find yourself in a war zone with New Hampshire, Connecticut and Rhode Island all pushing their own gambling agendas. Wherever you look, there are plans for new resort-casinos and thousands of slot machines at race tracks and dedicated slots parlors. With all these states in competition to attract the same hard-core gamblers, they all risk ending up with little improvement to their revenue streams. More interestingly, you have to doubt the commercial judgement of the corporations still prepared to consider building new casinos. Just as the states have looming deficits to fill, many of the existing casinos have fallen on hard times as online slots have grown more popular. Indeed, if the GOP and its Tea Party element are against big government, they should oppose the use of gambling to prop up state finances. Surely, the libertarian stays home to play online slots, keeps all the winnings and pays no taxes, direct or indirect.

Anyway, the real point of interest in Pennsylvania is the growing threat of litigation from the group of license holders who run slot machines. When the licenses were first issued, the state sold maximum exclusivity for a high fee (that’s $50 million a license). The enabling law is very clear. No other gambling outlet will be allowed to compete directly with the market for slot machines. At the time, this looked a good deal for both sides. Gambling was a popular activity and the state benefited from a generous input to its finances. Fast forward and the recession has forced people to cut back on their discretionary spending. This means less money to spend on trips to gamble. Ironically, the casino operators to benefit from this have been online. Had it not been for the changes in the law making it difficult to move money into and out of the online casino accounts, they would have cleaned up. So this leaves the current license holders under pressure with building work on some of the proposed casino and resort sites put on hold. While the government finds an expanding black hole eating up its cash reserves as tax revenue falls. The state’s answer is proposals to increase the number of slot machines allowed in the existing resorts and to license new resorts. To the existing license holders, this looks like plans to allow direct competition from new operators. They are up in arms with their attorneys slavering on the end of a short leash, just waiting for the chance to sue.

There’s no doubt slots still represents a pot of gold for both the license holders and the state. The machines are still a big draw even though the recession is biting hard. But this plan looks like an expansion too far. The average spend has dropped. If the state increases the number of machines, this will only spread the same amount of money around more machines. It’s not going to increase the size of the spend. This leaves the state with a growing hole in its accounts and the existing license holders with a good case in contract and constitutional law. With the online casinos introducing new slots games every month and keeping up player interest, this is no time to be fighting over a reducing market in the real world.